Space–time analysis of vehicle theft patterns in Shanghai, China. Yuanyuan Mao, Shenzhi Dai, Jiajun Ding, Wei Zhu, Can Wang, Xinyue Ye. International Journal of Geo-Information, 2018, 7(9), 357; doi: 10.3390/ijgi7090357.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract To identify and compare the space–time patterns of vehicle thefts and the effects of associated environmental factors, this paper conducts a case study of the Pudong New Area (PNA), a major urban district in Shanghai, China’s largest city. Geographic information system (GIS)-based analysis indicated that there was a stable pattern of vehicle theft over time. Hotspots of vehicle theft across different time periods were identified. These data provide clues for how law enforcement can prioritize the deployment of limited patrol and investigative resources. Vehicle thefts, especially those of non-motor vehicles, tend to be concentrated in the central-western portion of the PNA, which experienced a dramatic rate of urbanization and has a high concentration of people and vehicles. Important factors contributing to vehicle thefts include a highly mobile and transitory population, a large population density, and high traffic volume.
消费者行为视角下的商业综合体功能复合效应与机制. 王灿, 王德, 朱玮, 宋姗. 新建筑, 2018, (4): 112-116.
Multi-functional effects and mechanism of commercial complex from the perspective of consumer behavior. Can Wang, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Shan Song. New Architecture, 2018, (4): 112-116.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 以上海市五角场万达广场为案例，从消费者行为视角探讨了商业综合体功能复合效应的内在规律。研究以消费者对多功能的组合使用作为功能联系的媒介，自下而上地建立复合功能网络；通过社会网络分析方法测度各功能的核心度，建构“核心—边缘”结构；进而按照核心度与计划性将功能划分为主导发动、活跃辅助、定向任务、随机孤立4类，对每类功能提出了配置和布局建议。研究特别指出了大型超市作为主力店的意义有被高估的风险，以及在空间布局中提取功能之间的关联规则、将关联功能邻近布置的策略。研究为商业综合体复合功能体系的组织提供支持。
Taking Shanghai Wujiaochang Wanda Plaza as example, this paper analyzes the multi-functional effect of commercial complex from the perspective of consumer behavior. Multi-functional network is built bottom-up in the way that consumers are viewed as agents delivering connections among functions via combinational usage of them. Then social network analysis methods are utilized to calculate coreness index to represent the position of functions in the network, and construct the core-periphery structure. After that, the paper divides all functions into 4 roles according to their coreness and planning proportion, for each the strategies of configuration and spatial layout are further discussed. It is specially emphasized that the significance of large supermarket as the anchor store might be overestimated, and it is suggested to extract associated functions and arrange them nearby when making spatial layout. The findings of this paper are expected to support the planning practice.
消费者行为视角下的大宁商业综合体空间绩效评价. 任熙元, 王灿, 王德, 陈胜馨. 规划师, 2018, 34(2): 101-107.
Spatial performance evaluation of Daning commercial complex based on consumers’ behavior. Xi-Yuan Ren, Can Wang, De Wang, Shengxin Chen. Planners, 2018, 34(2): 101-107.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 随着消费者需求层级的不断提高，商业综合体呈现出强大的竞争力和广阔的发展前景。在复杂环境下多要素叠合分析中，基于主观经验和价值判断的传统空间行为研究的局限性日趋凸显，急需更加细致的空间环境评价体系来辅助其设计实践。文章以上海大宁国际商业广场为例，通过构建商业综合体的空间绩效评价指标体系，从消费活力、消费者体验及空间紧凑度 3 个方面对其总体绩效进行评价，并进一步从空间优势、自身效益及连带效应 3 个维度评判各空间分区的空间绩效，为将来的空间优化提供参考。
With the improvement of consumers’ demand, commercial complex shows a strong competitiveness and well development prospect. The limitation of traditional spatial behavior research based on subjective experience and values are appearing, ask for a refined performance evaluation system. The paper takes Daning commercial complex of Shanghai as an example, builds the spatial performance evaluation system, evaluates its consumption vitality, consumers’ experience, and space compactness; evaluates the performance of different zones from space advantage, self-benefit, and process effects, provides reference to the space optimization.
Classification and prediction of pedestrian routes in urban commercial space. Can Wang, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Shan Song. Annual Conference of Association of American Geographers, New Orleans, USA, Apr, 2018.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract Consumers’ walking behavior always presents great complexity, and it is well believed that better understanding and reasonable prediction of pedestrian routes could be quite beneficial for urban commercial space design. Based on a random sample of 323 routes collected from a shopping mall in Shanghai China, this study calculates the similarity between each pair of two routes using edit distance, and applies affinity propagation clustering algorithm to extract exemplar routes, from which spatial behavioral modes on individual scale are revealed. The paper then splits all routes to 1761 from-to choices, and proposes 2 kinds of models to simulate how consumers choose their next destinations. One is classical discrete choice model family, including logit model and nested logit model; the other is convolutional neural network (CNN), which combines multiple logit models together nonlinearly in its convolutional layer. For both models, 3 groups of explanatory variables are used, including attractiveness, spatial impedance, and go-home indicators. It is found that CNN performs slightly better in term of cross validation accuracy, but it is much more prone to overfitting and could hardly provide intuitive understandings of spatial behavioral mechanism. In contrast, the advantages of discrete choice models are satisfactory accuracy, immunity to overfitting, significant interpretability, and simplicity.
基于行为偏好模型的商业综合体空间优化策略研究——以大宁国际商业广场（上海）为例. 任熙元, 王灿, 王德. 时代建筑, 2017, (5): 54-59.
Spatial improvement strategies based on behavior preference model: a case study of the Daning commercial complex, Shanghai. Xi-Yuan Ren, Can Wang, De Wang. Time Architecture, 2017, (5): 54-59.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 随着消费者需求层次不断提升，商业综合体呈现出个性化、主题化、体验式的发展趋势。在复杂环境下的多要素叠合分析中，基于主观经验和价值判断的传统空间行为研究的局限性日益凸显，急需更加细到处的空间行为研究与分析工具来辅助设计实践。文章结合传统问卷调研数据与大众点评数据，构建消费者行为偏好的多项Logit模型，在此基础上，提出空间优化建议，并通过CCSIM软件进行多方案优化效果模拟。文章旨在帮助设计师对顾客行为进行解读，理解顾客行为研究从定性描述到定量测度、从后置观测到前置预判的转变。
With the continuous hiking of consumer demand level, commercial complex demonstrates a personalized, thematic, and experiential development trend. The limitations of traditional space behavior research based on subjective experience and values are becoming increasingly prominent in multi-element analysis in sophisticated environment, and thus more effective spatial behavior research and analysis tools are in urgent demand to assist the design practice. This paper combines traditional questionnaire survey data and Dianping data, provides spatial optimization suggestions based on Multinomial Logit Model, and compares their effects using CCSIM simulation. The paper aims at helping designers’ understanding of consumer behavior research changing from qualitative description to quantitative measure and from post observation to predetermined prejudgment.
商业综合体的消费者空间行为特征与评价. 王德, 王灿, 朱玮, 宋姗. 建筑学报, 2017, 581(2): 27-32.
Spatial features and assessment of consumer behavior in commercial complex. De Wang, Can Wang, Wei Zhu, Shan Song. Architectural Journal, 2017, 581(2): 27-32.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 基于消费者行为的视角，以上海五角场万达广场为案例对商业综合体的空间行为特征与模式进行了分析评价。研究首先描述了活动的空间分布以及各空间在活动的计划性、消费、时间上的特点；进而以个体为单位总结空间行为模式，通过聚类分析发现消费者在到访空间组合上的特征差异，通过计算路径间的相似度提取典型路径，并揭示其组织规律；最后从行为视角对空间绩效进行了评价。
From the perspective of consumer behavior, this paper analyzes and assesses the spatial behavioral features and modes of Wujiaochang Wanda Plaza, a typical case of commercial complex. The paper depicts the spatial distribution of activities and related attributes, such as plan, cost and duration. It reveals spatial behavioral modes on individual scale to identify organizing features through the study of both different combinations of spaces visited using clustering methods and typical routes based on a calculation of similarities among individual routes. The paper concludes with an assessment of spatial performance from the behavioral viewpoint.
基于行为偏好的休闲步行环境改善研究. 刘珺, 王德, 朱玮, 王昊阳, 王灿. 城市规划, 2017, 41(9): 58-63.
Research on improvement of recreational walking environment based on behavior preference. Jun Liu, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Hao-Yang Wang, Can Wang. City Planning Review, 2017, 41(9): 58-63.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 运用叙述性偏好法调查休闲步行环境选择行为，在此基础上构建离散选择模型，量化研究休闲步行者对于步行环境的偏好机制，辨识各关注要素的影响程度。研究发现，休闲步行者最关注的步行环境要素为机动车流量大小、遮荫情况和人行道有效宽度。选择上海市杨浦区鞍山新村地区作为实际案例，应用休闲步行环境偏好研究结论，评价现状步行环境，量化具体改造措施的实施效果，为步行环境改善方法的研究提供一种行为视角的新思路。。
This paper uses the Stated Preference method to investigate the choice behavior of recreational walking environment, based on which a Discrete Choice Model to quantify the preference mechanism for walking environment by recreational walkers and to define the influence degrees of various related elements. Research results reveal that traffic volume, shade and pavement width are the main factors influencing pedestrian’s route choice behavior. Based on the model, Anshan New Area of Yangpu District, Shanghai, has been taken
基于需求偏好的上海市养老机构空间配置研究. 宋姗, 王德, 朱玮, 王灿. 城市规划, 2016, 40(8): 77-90.
Spatial allocation study on Shanghai’s nursing facilities for the elderly: based on the elderly’s choice behavior. Shan Song, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Can Wang. City Planning Review, 40(8): 77-90.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 人口快速老龄化使得养老形势日益严峻，机构养老需求增大。在养老资源如此紧张的当前，上海养老机构却出现了市区“一床难求”、郊区“空置率高”的对立。研究针对这一现象，提出了以老年人需求为导向的研究思路，通过叙述性偏好调查，总结了老年人的养老机构需求特征及偏好机制，揭示了造成养老资源利用冷热不均的原因，并提出了郊区养老机构优化的策略及路径，最后以浦东新区近郊新建一处养老机构为例，开展了规划配置实践。
With the rapid process of population aging, China’s geriatric support system is facing a more serious situation. Elderly people’s demands of the nursing facilities are increasing. Although the current nursing resources are still not enough, two contradictory phenomenon have arisen in Shanghai. Namely, endowment beds are severely short in downtown, while there are still many unused beds in suburbs. In response to this problem, the paper puts forward the elderly-demand-oriented research path. Based on the stated preference survey in Shanghai, the paper has analyzed the characteristics and mechanism of the elderly’s demand preference of the nursing facilities. It reveals the reason that has led to the unbalanced demand of the endowment beds between downtown and suburbs and concludes the improving strategies and paths of suburb nursing facilities. At last, this paper introduces practice of allocation planning of nursing facilities in Chuansha Newtown, which belongs to the inner suburbs of Pudong District.
上海顾村公园樱花节大客流特征及预警研究——基于手机信令数据的探索. 方家, 王德, 谢栋灿, 王灿, 等. 城市规划, 2016, 40(6): 43-51.
Research on dynamic change and early warning of large tourist flow based on mobile signal data analysis: a case study of Gucun park Sakura Festival in Shanghai. Jia Fang, De Wang, Dong-Can Xie, Can Wang, et al. City Planning Review, 40(6): 43-51.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 基于上海市手机信令数据，通过2014年上海顾村樱花节开幕后周六(文中简称“节日”)和前周六(文中简称“平日”)客流的比对，对樱花节引发大客流的时空分布规律以及游客行为的改变进行了分析，并尝试对大客流进行预警。研究发现节日和平日樱花节客流来源地空间分布规律：与传统同心圆形态不同，总体格局呈“锥形”，该形态并未因节日发生明显改变，均呈现以顾村公园为核心，沿1号、3号、7号地铁线向市中心蔓延的趋势。客流增加最多的区域大多地铁出行便利、居住人数密集，出游率增加的空间统计单元占总数的88.43%。通过追踪发现：90.38%的游客游憩行为类型发生了变化——樱花节的开幕，使以上游客的行为从以居家放松、购物为代表的室内被动型游憩行为转化为亲近自然的主动型户外游憩行为。本文最后通过可预测节日顾村公园在园人数的站点和时段(文中简称“标志时站”)的选择，明确了标志时站手机信令数据(节日比平日的)增率与顾村公园在园人数增率的关系；提出基于节日顾村公园在园人数预测的三级预警方案。研究证明，手机信令数据在人流预警与跟踪识别方面，具有较强的现实意义，可实现从被动监测到主动预测，从监控到预警的转变。
Through comparison of tourist flow on Saturday before (short for the “ordinary day”) and Saturday after (short for the “festival day”) the 2014 Shanghai Gucun Park Sakura Festival based on mobile signal data in Shanghai, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution features of large tourist flow and changes of tourist behavior, and attempts to propose early warning plan for large tourist flow. As to the spatial distribution, the paper presents that the origin of tourist flow has two features as follows: firstly, different from concentric circles, the general pattern presents as cone-shaped without being obviously affected by the holding of the festival; secondly, high density of tourists generally center around Gucun Park, with a spreading trend towards the city center along metro line 1, line 3 and line 7. The areas in which the number of tourists shows largest growth usually have convenient metro nearby and high density of residential communities. And the result indicates that 88.43% of the spatial statistical units show an increased travel rate because of the festival. Based on the spatial trace, the paper figures out the festival has changed 90.38% of tourists’ recreation behavior, i.e., from passive recreation represented by indoor relaxation and shopping to active recreation such as outdoor activities. Lastly, the paper clarifies the relationship between the growth rate of mobile signal data of SSTQ (symbolic station and time quantum) and growth rate of tourists numbers of Gucun Park on festival day, based on selection of tourists number of SSTQ, and proposes a three-level early warning plan based on tourist number forecast on festival days. The research proves that mobile signal data has strong application value in terms of early warning and spatial tracing of tourist flow, by realizing transforms from passive surveillance to proactive forecast, and from monitoring to early warning.
基于消费者行为的商业综合体空间特征与评价——以上海五角场万达广场为例. 王灿, 王德, 朱玮. 2015年中国城市规划年会, 贵阳, 2015年9月.
Spatial Features and Assessment of Commercial Complex Based on Consumer Behavior: a Case Study of Shanghai Wujiaochang Wanda Plaza. Annual National Planning Conference 2015, Guiyang, China, Sep, 2015.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 在商业综合体快速发展的背景下，本文基于消费者行为的视角，以上海五角场万达广场为案例，利用问卷调查数据对其空间特征与行为模式进行了分析，并以此为依据对空间绩效进行评价。研究首先围绕空间行为网络信息系统重点对活动的空间分布以及各个空间在活动的计划性、消费、时间上的特点进行了描述，剖析了空间分布的影响因素和属性间的相互关系。在此基础上，通过聚类方法以及路径相似度指标的计算，以个体为单位从空间访问记录及完整路径信息中总结空间行为模式，发现消费者主要围绕5个核心空间组织自己的行为，彼此间具有不同的空间组合规律，在典型路径的组织上，主力店发挥锚固节点的作用，具有良好环境品质的一般店通过前导、后续、联系过渡的方式与主力店取得互动，更精细的典型路径则对应于特定消费群体的需求。最后在评价部分，研究界定了发动型空间，指出内街的重要意义，探讨了大型超市空间的封闭性等内容。研究有助于加深对商业综合体空间规律的认识，并为下一步工作建立了基础。
In the background of rapid development of commercial complex, this paper takes Shanghai Wujiaochang Wanda Plaza as an example, using questionnaire data to analyze the spatial features and behavioral modes and then make assessment for spatial performance. Firstly, a spatial behavioral network information system is built to depict the spatial distribution of activities and related attributes, such as plan, cost, duration. In this way, the paper analyzes the influential factors and relationship between attributes. Then clustering methods and calculation of similarity among paths is adopted to summarize the spatial behavioral modes at individual unit. It is found that there exist 5 core spaces with different features for corresponding consumers to organize their activities. As to typical routes, main stores act as anchors and interact with common tenants which are in good environment and can be pre-, post- or in-between space of main stores. More detailed typical paths correspond with specific consumer groups. At the final part of assessment, the launching spaces are defined, the great significance of inner street is pointed out, and isolation problem of big supermarket is discussed. The findings would add understanding to commercial complex space and be basic work for further research.
Consumer behavior in commercial complex: simulation models and planning implications. Can Wang, De Wang, Wei Zhu. Annual Conference of Association of American Geographers, Chicago, USA, Apr, 2015.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract China is undergoing a rapid development of so-called commercial complex which is characterized by integration of variety of functions such as retail business, catering and entertainment. With its new traits and great popularity among consumers, commercial complex has reshaped the urban commercial space considerably and thus captured growing attention from researchers. It is believed that better understanding of behavioral features of consumers in commercial complex can improve planning and design practice a lot. Therefore, this paper aims to provide fine quantitative methods to analyze relations between consumer behavior and the spatiotemporal context of commercial complex on micro scope. A case namely Wanda Square of Wujiaochang in Shanghai is selected for empirical study, and the data are collected by questionnaire with more than 600 participants. The analysis starts with description of some remarkable behavioral characteristics, then discrete choice models are utilized to reveal the mechanisms of how consumers’ spatial decisions are affected by kinds of influential factors, i.e., to go into depth on behavioral rules hiding behind the observations. This is followed by simulating work, which is both confirmatory as to verify the validation of the models, and predictive as to derive possible effects under given environmental changes. Several spatial improvement measures are assumed and examined by addressing what-if questions in the interest of supporting commercial complex planning. It is concluded that the models perform well with powerful explanations and acceptable goodness-of-fit, and useful tools for spatial optimization of commercial complex based on consumer behavior are available.
离散选择模型研究进展. 王灿, 王德, 朱玮, 宋姗. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(10): 1275-1287.
Research progress of discrete choice models. Can Wang, De Wang, Wei Zhu, Shan Song. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(10): 1275-1287.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 本文从离散选择模型(discrete choice model,DCM)体系的一般原理和应用价值出发,总结了各经典模型的基本理论和典型应用,并概括了近来年一些重要的研究新动向。多项Logit模型(multinomial logit model,MNL)是离散选择模型体系的基础,具有简洁、可靠、易实现等优点,但也存在固有的理论缺陷,由此产生了对更加精细化模型的需求。替代的精细化模型中,嵌套Logit模型(nested logit model,NL)常用于处理备选项相关、”都不选”备选项、数据合并等问题,一般极值模型(generalized extreme value model,GEV)体系是其更一般的形式;混合Logit模型(mixed logit model,MXL)可用于解决随机偏好问题和多种相关问题,包括备选项相关、面版数据相关、随机系数相关、数据合并等,与之类似的潜在类别模型也有着广泛应用;多项Probit模型(multinomial probit model,MNP)具有极高的灵活性,但其复杂的模型设定与庞大的运算量大大制约了其应用范围。本文在研究新动向上介绍了4个重要的研究关注点:由多种经典模型形式相结合而成的复杂模型;面向RP/SP数据、定序、排序、多选等不同数据类型的适宜模型;基于各种受限理性选择策略的更为真实的模型;以及考虑选择的时空背景的模型。
This article takes the general principles and application values of the discrete choice model system as a departure point and summarizes the classical model forms with respect to their basic theories and typical applications. Important latest developments are also introduced. Multinomial logit (MNL) model is the basis of the discrete choice model system, with the advantages of simplicity, reliability, and easy implementation. However, it also has some inherent theoretic defects, which led to the need for more refined models. Nested logit model is usually used to deal with problems of correlation among alternatives, no-choice alternative, and data enrichment. Its more general form is the generalized extreme value (GEV) model system; mixed logit model is suitable for handling random preference and some kinds of correlation problems, such as correlation among alternatives, panel data, random coefficients, and data for enrichment. A similar model form named latent class model is also widely used. Multinomial probit (MNP) model is highly flexible. However, its application is limited due to the complexity of model specification and very high computation demands. With regard to the new development of discrete choice model system, four important areas are introduced. These include complex new models derived from the combination of classical models; models suitable for dealing with revealed preference/stated preference (RP/SP), ordered, ranked, and multiple choice data; models based on bounded rationality choice which is more close to reality; and models considering the spatiotemporal background of choice.
基于手机信令数据的上海市不同等级商业中心商圈的比较——以南京东路、五角场、鞍山路为例. 王德, 王灿, 谢栋灿, 等. 城市规划学刊, 2015, (3): 50-60.
Comparison of retail trades areas of retail centers with different hierarchical levels: a case study of East Nanjing Road, Wujiaochang, Anshan Road in Shanghai. De Wang, Can Wang, Dong-Can Xie, et al. Urban Planning Forum, 2015, (3): 50-60.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 利用手机信令数据,以上海市南京东路、五角场和鞍山路三个不同等级的商业中心为例对商圈进行合理地划分,分析和比较了不同等级商业中心的消费者数量的空间分布特征,并采取一定的可视化手段和空间统计指标对三个商业中心的等级性进行空间抽象,深入探讨不同等级商业中心的消费者空间分布特点。研究表明,不同等级商业中心在消费者分布范围、空间集聚性、对称性方面都存在较大差异。整体来看,从大范围覆盖的广域型高等级中心到依托局部高密度的地缘型低等级中心,形成了一种有序的商业中心空间体系。另外,也对这一特征的深层机制进行了剖析,并简要探讨了对商业网点规划的应用价值。
This paper compares trade areas of retail centers at different hierarchical levels by using the cell phone signaling data. East Nanjing Road, Wujiaochang retail center and Anshan Road in Shanghai are selected as the cases to represent three different hierarchical retail centers. Based on the division of market areas, the paper analyzes and compares spatial distribution of consumers of the three different hierarchical retail centers. It uses visualization tools and spatial statistical indicators to engage a deep discussion about consumers’ spatial characteristics of the different hierarchical retail centers. The results show that the consumer distribution, spatial clustering and symmetry of trade area of the different hierarchical retail centers are quite different. As a whole, an orderly retail center spatial system has formed from high-level retail centers serving large geographic areas to the local-based low-level retail centers. The paper also discusses deep reasons behind the formation of the system and the application of the research result on commercial network planning.
基于参观者行为模拟的空间规划与管理研究——青岛世园会的案例. 王德, 王灿, 朱玮, 等. 城市规划, 2015, 39(2): 65-70.
Large-scale exposition planning and management optimization based on visitors’ behavior simulation: a case study of Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition 2014. De Wang, Can Wang, Wei Zhu, et al. City Planning Review, 2015, 39(2): 65-70.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 2014年青岛世园会参观人次众多,需要对参观者行为进行模拟分析,以保证活动安全,提升游客体验。研究提出了通过行为模拟支持规划评价、预警及对策的技术框架。利用路径调查与陈述偏好调查获得参观者行为数据并建立模型,进而在多个情景下对个体行游轨迹进行了模拟仿真,分析预测了参观者排队、密度等参数的时空分布情况。在针对不同类型的评价对象提出各自评价指标的基础上,从模拟结果中辨识可能存在的问题,并从规划与管理两方面提出预警及优化对策。研究证明了对大型展会活动开展参观者行为模拟的技术框架的可行性,其结果对本次世园会具有一定的实践指导意义。
It is necessary to simulate visitors’ behavior in Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition 2014 for security and high-quality visitor experience due to the huge estimated pedestrian volume. This paper proposes a technical framework in purpose of supporting the assessment, early warning as well as countermeasures based on behavior simulation. Visitors’ activity data are collected through a route choice survey and the informants’ reported preference, based on which the behavior models are estimated. Visitors’ trajectories under several scenarios are simulated, together with the spatio-temporal distributions of visitors’ density and queuing behaviors. Criteria are proposed to evaluate each simulated object, based on which indexes are set up, used to identify problems that are likely to happen in the real exposition. In the end, the paper proposes early warnings and countermeasures of both planning and administration. The simulation framework is demonstrated to be feasible and valuable for the exposition.
高铁站点周边地区的发展与规划——基于京沪高铁的实证分析. 王兰, 王灿, 陈晨, 顾浩. 城市规划学刊, 2014(4): 31-37.
Development and planning of the surrounding area of high-speed rail stations: based on empirical study of Beijing-Shanghai line. Lan Wang, Can Wang, Chen Chen, Hao Gu. Urban Planning Forum, 2014(4): 31-37.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 在我国区域交通基础设施大规模建设的背景下,以京沪高铁沿线22个城市的站点及其周边地区为样本,探索高铁站点设置对周边地区发展的影响机制。研究首先从理论出发分析区域性交通设施对于周边城镇发展的作用,明确研究思路与框架,建立影响机制的理论模型。基于理论假设,研究的实证部分运用2006—2012年京沪高铁设站城市和站点周边相关数据,开展聚类分析,建构多元回归模型和结构方程,明确影响站点周边地区发展的核心要素。同时,基于对22个样本的实地踏勘和规划资料收集,分析站点选址、周边地区发展在规模、土地使用性质、与其他交通设施衔接等方面的规划、实施现状和问题。研究通过深入理解高铁站点对其周边地区发展的影响,辨析规划和实施的问题,提出区域交通设施周边地区规划设计的思路和原则,力求推进站点周边地区集约、高效和可持续的发展。
In the context of massive construction of regional transportation infrastructure in China, this research explores the impacts of high-speed train stations on development of surrounding areas based on a sample of 22 cities and towns along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train line. The research first identifies methodology and analytical framework, explores possible factors of regional transportation system that influences urbanization and establishes a theoretical model. Based on that, the empirical part of this research adopts cluster analysis, multi-level regression model and structural equation model to identify specific factors affecting the development of surrounding area of stations. Based on field study and plan analysis, this research reviews planning and implementation in terms of station selection, scale, land use and transportation. Development approaches and principles are proposed in order to achieve intensive, efficient and sustainable urban development.
城市公交运营参数时变特征的推断性统计研究——以保定市为例. 王灿, 汤宇卿. 交通标准化, 2014, 42(19): 34-37.
Inferential statistical research on features of hourly variations of urban public transportation parameters: a case study of Baoding. Can Wang, Yu-Qing Tang. Transportation Standardization, 2014, 42(19): 34-37.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 以保定市公交跟车调查数据为研究对象,基于方差分析模型对早晨、上午、下午、傍晚4个时段的公交客流量、行程时间、满载率进行了分析,得到了工作日与周末不同的时变特征。工作日呈现”高峰—平峰”特征,存在早晚两个高峰,与一般描述性经验相一致,而周末则呈现”午前—午后”特征,与一般经验存在较大差异。
The article takes bus-following survey data of Boding as the research object, the approach of ANOVA is adopted to analyze passenger flow volume, travel time and load ratio within 4 hourly periods and 2 days. It is concluded that features of hourly variations on weekdays and weekends are not the same. Weekday is characterized by‘high or flat peaks’, which is consistent with general descriptive experience, while weekend is characterized by‘before or after the noon’, which is quite a different thing.
起讫点矩阵与产生吸引点矩阵的相互转换. 王灿, 汤宇卿. 同济大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 42(2): 252-258.
Mutual transformation between OD matrix and PA matrix. Can Wang, Yu-Qing Tang. Journal of Tongji University (Nature Science), 2014, 42(2): 252-258.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 对起讫点(OD)矩阵与产生吸引点(PA)矩阵的关系做了深入辨析,指出二者经常对应于不同的时间区间.通过对高峰小时系数局限性的分析,明确了出行分类的必要性,并提出了基于出行链与出行目的构成的分类比例推算方法.进而通过分时出发与到达系数,建立全日PA矩阵与高峰小时OD矩阵之间相互的线性变换关系,并在理论上论证了由OD矩阵推算PA矩阵的可行性.为便于实现,编写了由OD矩阵转换为PA矩阵的人机交互程序,最后通过算例检验了理论成果的有效性。
The relationship between origin-destination (OD) and production-attraction (PA) matrix was analyzed, and it was point out that they often corresponded with different time intervals. An analysis on the limit of peak hour factor argued the necessity of trip classification, and the method to estimate the ratio of each class was proposed based on trip chain and trip purpose structure. Then, with the help of hourly departure and return ratio index, the linear transformation relationship between day-long PA matrix and peak-hour OD matrix was argued, and the feasibility of PA matrix estimation was demonstrated theoretically. Besides, a human-computer interaction interface was programmed. At last, an example was adopted to testify the effectiveness of the findings.
博弈论视角下的交通分配系统最优与用户均衡的探讨. 王灿, 汤宇卿. 武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）, 2014, 38(4): 850-854.
Discussion of system optimum and user equilibrium in traffic assignment with the perspective of game theory. Can Wang, Yu-Qing Tang. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Transportation Science & Engineering), 2014, 38(4): 850-854.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 为了更好地解释系统最优与用户均衡两种交通分配方法间的定量关系,透过博弈论的视角,通过对算例的非合作博弈分析,从无限策略集下纯策略Nash均衡的角度指出了系统最优与用户均衡的统一性,二者作为Nash均衡的两种特殊状态,可以随博弈局中人数的变化而相互转化.同时,还对系统最优与用户均衡的转化过程进行分析,阐述其两阶段特征及对实际分配状态的影响,并通过在多场景中调整路阻函数的各项参数,指出路径的自由流走行时间作为”初期优势”,对转化速度和方向具有关键性影响。
In purpose of going deep in to the quantitative relation between system optimum and user equilibrium, which are two classical methods of traffic assignment, the perspective of game theory is adopted. Through non-cooperative game analysis to the example, it is showed that system optimum and user equilibrium can be integrated to pure strategy Nash equilibrium under infinite strategy sets. Existing as two particular situations of Nash equilibrium, they can transform to each other with change of the number of game players. Furthermore, the transformation process between system optimum and user equilibrium is analyzed, which is characterized by two different stages. The impact that parameters in impedance functions exert on process is also researched, and it is argued that the free flow travel time, which reflects the original advantage of the route, has great influence on transformation speed and tendency.
2014年青岛世园会参观人流模拟研究. 王德, 王灿, 朱玮, 等. 2013年中国城市规划年会, 青岛, 2013年11月.
Simulation analysis of visitors’ activities in Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition 2014. De Wang, Can Wang, Wei Zhu, et al. Annual National Planning Conference 2013, Qingdao, China, Nov. 2013.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 2014年青岛世园会参观人次众多，需要对参观者行为进行模拟分析，以保证活动安全，提升游客体验。研究提出了通过行为模拟支持规划评价、预警及对策的技术框架。利用路径调查与陈述偏好调查获得参观者行为数据并建立模型，进而在多个情景下对个体行游轨迹进行了模拟仿真，分析预测了参观者排队、密度等参数的时空分布情况。在针对不同类型的评价对象提出各自评价指标的基础上，从模拟结果中辨识可能存在的问题，并从规划与管理两方面提出预警及优化对策。研究证明了对大型展会活动开展参观者行为模拟的技术框架的可行性，其结果对本次世园会具有一定的实践指导意义。
Simulating visitors’activities in Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition 2014 is a necessary approach for security and high quality experience. A technical framework in purpose of supporting assessment, early warning as well as countermeasure based on behavior simulation was discussed. Visitors’activities data were collected through path survey and stated preference experiment and the behavior models were estimated. They were adopted to simulate individual’s visiting path under multi-scenarios to predicting spatiotemporal distribution of visitors’queue, density and so on. As to different kinds of assessment objects, a system of index was built up and utilized to find out latent problems that stayed behind the simulation result. Then, early warnings as well as countermeasures of both planning and administration were proposed. The feasibility of such a technical framework was demonstrated through the paper, and the results showed some practical implications for Qingdao EXPO 2014.
多代理人模拟技术在大型展会规划及管理中的应用：以青岛2014世界园艺博览会为例. 朱玮, 王德, 王灿, 等. 2013年国外城市规划学术委员会及《国际城市规划》杂志编委会年会, 武汉, 2013年11月.
Application of multi-agent simulation technology in the planning and administration of large-scale exhibitions: a case study of Qingdao 2014 World Horticulture Exposition. Symposium of the Academic Committee of Foreign Studies in Urban Planning & the Journal of Urban Planning International, Wuhan, China, Nov, 2013.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 在大型展会于我国蓬勃开展的背景下，园区规划过程中的游客行为评价对于优化规划过程、预备管理措施都是不可或缺的。本文介绍应用多代理人模拟技术对青岛世园会园区内部交通进行仿真的项目，简介了模拟系统的构建、模拟的结果以及相应的规划和管理改善建议。结果显示，多代理人模拟技术对于大型展会规划和管理具有较高的价值，值得今后深入发展应用。
In recent years, large-scale exhibitions have been developing fast in China, which calls for visitor behavior evaluation during exhibition site planning in order to optimize the planning processes and prepare administrative measures. The paper introduces the in-site traffic simulation project of the Qingdao 2014 World Horticulture Exposition based on multi-agent simulation technology, including the system construction, simulation results and the according measures to improve the planning and administration. It shows the value of this technology to large-scale exhibition planning and administrations deserves extensive development in the future.
苏州观前商业街区消费者行为模型构建与应用. 王德, 李光德, 朱玮, 王灿, 等. 城市规划, 2013, 37(9): 28-33.
Establishment and application of consumers’ behavior model in Guanqian commercial street, Suzhou. De Wang, Guang-De Li, Wei Zhu, Can Wang, et al. City Planning Review, 2013, 37(9): 28-33.
► 链接 Hyperlink | 摘要 Abstract 为揭示面状商业街区内消费者路径选择行为的规律,运用统计学方法对苏州观前街地区消费者行为进行了分析,包括消费活动的空间分布、地块间消费者流动、消费者路径选择行为等。进而运用分对数模型分析了消费者在交叉口的方向选择行为,发现不同方向上的营业面积、趋近于观前街、趋近于小公园、趋近于玄妙观、道路宽度、步行化等要素对方向选择有显著作用。最后,运用模型对人民路步行化、交叉口改造和小公园改变用途后的消费者行为的对应变化进行了模拟,以预估规划方案的实施效果并评价规划变更的影响。
In order to discover the rules of consumers’ route choice behavior in the commercial street, this paper employs statistical methods to analyze the space-time characteristic of the consumers’ behavior in Guanqian Street of Suzhou, including the spatial distribution of consumption activities, consumer flow between different sites, consumers’ route choice behavior, etc. Following the
basic analysis, the paper uses Logit model to analyze the consumer’s choice of direction at the crossings, finding that the factors such as the business area, closeness to Guanqian Street, closeness to the small park, closeness to Xuanmiao Temple, road width, and pedestrian-friendliness in different directions play a significant role in the choice of direction. In the end, the paper uses the behavior model to simulate the changes in the consumers’ behavior after the pedestrianization of Renmin Road, the renovation of crossings, and the shift of the use of the small park, so as to predict the implementation effect of the planning scheme and evaluate the influence caused by the change of the planning.